In-person Seminar @NPD: Curbing Optimism and Overconfidence Bias in Forecasting

1130 Lunch

1200 Presentation

Speaker Prof Reidar Bratvoll UiS

The oil and gas industry has made significant strides in uncertainty modeling and quantification. However, despite these advances, there is still a persistent problem with optimistic and overconfident cost, time, and production forecasts, which leads to substantial value losses. Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) offers a solution to this issue by providing an effective way to generate unbiased forecasts. Yet, companies often struggle with implementing RCF not because it is complex, but because it is too simple. This talk will explore the inherent biases in forecasting and demonstrate how they can be eliminated. It will emphasize the importance of unbiased forecasting as a means of reducing value loss.

Reidar B Bratvold is a professor of decision and investment analysis at the University of Stavanger where he is teaching and conducting research in decision analysis, data assimilation and analytics, sequential decision making, and behavioral challenges in decision making.

Prior to academia, Reidar spent 15 years in the industry in various technical and management roles. He is co-author of the book Making Good Decisions and has served as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer three times. Reidar holds a PhD in petroleum engineering and an MSc in mathematics, both from Stanford University.

FORCE seminars have previously been fully booked with waiting lists so you are encouraged to sign up as soon as you know you will attend.

Participation fees:

FORCE members: Free
Non-members: NOK 1000,-
University: Free
Student: Free

Important information:
You can register as a FORCE member and pay "FORCE member" price if you are an employee of a member company.
All FORCE member companies are listed here.

Payment is made online by credit card. Please note that no refunds will be given after you have signed up. If you for any reason can not attend the workshop, you are welcome to send a representative, just inform Linn Smerud as soon as there are changes.