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Discovered resources

Discovered resources

Discovered resources have increased over time

Remaining discovered resources have shown a steady increase over time. This trend continues, despite the low level of resource replacement and few new plans for development and operation last year. The reserve potential for contingent resources in discoveries and fields is significant.

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Discovered resources include reserves, contingent resources in fields and contingent resources in discoveries. Per 31.12.2024 these resources amount to 3,385 million Sm3, a reduction of 222 million Sm3 o.e. from 2023 to 2024.

Figure 2-1 illustrates how the volumes in the remaining discovered resources have changed since 2023. Production remained high in 2024. This occurred alongside a reduction in contingent resources and a modest increase in gross reserves of 34 million Sm³ o.e.

 

Figure 2-1 Overview of changes in discovered resources from 2023 to 2024. The X axis starts at 3,000 million Sm3 o.e. to highlight the changes.

Fields

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate's resource classification system defines petroleum resources as "reserves" once the operator has submitted a plan for development and operation (PDO) or has decided to implement a measure to optimise recovery that does not require a PDO.

Discoveries are classified as "fields" once the authorities have approved a PDO. 94 fields were in production at year-end. The Hanz and Tyrving fields started production in 2024, while three new fields have first oil scheduled in 2025. These three fields are Eirin, Halten Øst and Johan Castberg.

In 2024, the authorities approved two plans for development and operation (PDOs), and four PDO exemptions.

Reserves

The Resource Accounts for 2024 (Table 1-1) shows that there is a total of 858 million Sm³ oil and 1,260 billion Sm³ natural gas of remaining reserves. The increase in reserves from 2023 is 34 million Sm3 o.e.

The Troll and Johan Sverdrup fields have the largest remaining reserves on the NCS, with 564 billion Sm3 of natural gas and 223 million Sm3 of oil, respectively. Estimates of reserves and historical production for each field can be found on the Norwegian Offshore Directorate's FactPages.

The changes in gross reserves (including produced quantities) during the 2015–2024 period are illustrated as columns in Figure 2-2. The production is replaced by reserve growth in the years where the columns exceed production (shown with the dotted lines). Liquids reserves were nearly maintained over the last ten-year period, while there has been a reduction for natural gas.

 

Figure 2-2 Annual gross reserve changes and production for liquids and natural gas over the last ten-year period. The percentage shows annual reserve replacement .

2024 saw a low level of reserve replacement for liquids and natural gas; 16 and 12 per cent, respectively. The primary reasons for this are high production rates and few new decisions to develop and produce.

1,130 million Sm³ of liquids has been produced over the last ten years, and the Resource Accounts show that the remaining reserves are 37 million Sm³ lower than in 2014. This means that the reserve replacement for liquids has been 97 per cent over the last 10 years.

1,191 billion Sm³ of natural gas has been produced over the last ten years, and the Accounts show that the remaining reserves are 662 billion Sm³ lower than in 2014. This amounts to a natural gas reserve replacement rate of 44 per cent over the last ten years.

Contingent resources in fields

The expected value for contingent (no decision to develop) liquids resources in fields is 357 million Sm³; see Table 1-1. This is an increase of 1.2 million Sm³ from 2023. The expectation for natural gas is 294 billion Sm³ ─ an increase of 3.4 billion Sm³ from the previous year.

The Resource Accounts for 2024 include 154 concrete – but not sanctioned – projects for improved petroleum production and extended lifetime.

Projects to improve recovery are dominated by new wells, both in terms of number of projects (69) and volume (about 139 million Sm³ o.e.). Other projects that could provide substantial contributions are redevelopments, low pressure and late-phase production. Fewer measures have been identified which utilise new injection or advanced methods. Figure 2-3 shows a summary of these projects distributed by project type with associated resources distributed between liquids and natural gas.

 

Figure 2-3 Concrete projects for improved recovery from fields; number of projects and resources.

Discoveries

Contingent resources in discoveries

In 2024, there are a total of 78 discoveries in the portfolio with a total resource estimate of 472 million Sm3, with an approximately equal distribution between liquids and natural gas; see Table 1-1.

The total volume in discoveries has been reduced by 22 million Sm3 o.e. compared with last year's Accounts. This reduction was caused by multiple factors. One of the factors is the low resource growth from exploration activity in 2024. Another factor is the 11 discoveries in the portfolio that have changed status to "development is unlikely", meaning that they are not included in the contingent resource estimates for discoveries.

In Figure 2-4, the top diagram gives an overview of the development in the number of discoveries in the portfolio through 2024, and the lower diagram shows the equivalent for the resources in the discoveries.

Also shown in Figure 2-4, in 2024 a PDO was submitted for one discovery, 31/7-1 (Bestla), where resources have been matured to reserves. Additionally, eight discoveries were included in fields or other discoveries as resources with possible development.

 

Figure 2-4 The top figure shows the development in the number of discoveries in the discovery portfolio through 2024. Categories in light blue reflect contributions to growth and categories in orange reflect contributions to a reduction in the number of discoveries.

The lower figure shows the resource development in the discovery portfolio through 2024. Categories in light blue reflect the contribution to growth and categories in orange reflect contributions to a reduction in resources without a development decision in discoveries.

Sixteen discoveries were made in 2024, but only ten of which are included in the Resource Accounts as discoveries where development is expected. The total resource estimate for these ten discoveries is 32 million Sm3 o.e. Eight of these discoveries were made in the North Sea:

Furthermore, one discovery was made in the Norwegian Sea (6605/6-1 S) and one in the Barents Sea (7122/8-2 S).

There are six discoveries not included in the current portfolio for future developments, where four are considered unlikely candidates for development and two are included in fields.

The discoveries where development is unlikely are:

The discoveries that are included in fields are 33/12-N-4 AH (Solan) and 6406/2-L-2H (Lavrans Tilje Central).

Figure 2-5 shows the resources in the 78 discoveries in the portfolio. This portfolio consists of historical discoveries where development is likely. Most discoveries were made in the North Sea, with the natural gas discovery 35/2-1 (Peon) as the largest. The largest in the Norwegian Sea is 6406/9-1 (Linnorm), and 7324/8-1 (Wisting) is the largest discovery in the Barents Sea.

 

Figure 2-5 Discovery portfolio in the Resource Accounts.

Figure 2-6 shows that several tie-backs/phase-ins are planned for a large number of the discoveries. The most common development concept is subsea development. This is the most likely solution for 63 of the discoveries. Another possible solution for smaller discoveries close to infrastructure is to use vacant well slots on existing fields. Such a solution has been presumed for 13 discoveries.

 

Figure 2-6 Likely development solutions for the 78 discoveries in this year's Resource Accounts, as well as overall resources per development solution.

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