Undiscovered resources
Substantial undiscovered resources remain
Major undiscovered resources remain in all three ocean areas. The resource estimates are highest in the Barents Sea, where exploration activity has been low for quite some time. The North Sea contains the fewest undiscovered resources, as exploration activity has been consistently high in this area.
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Undiscovered resources are petroleum resources not yet proven through drilling. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates the volume of undiscovered resources both in acreage opened for petroleum activities, as well as in unopened areas. The estimates reflect the volumes of petroleum that could be extracted from prospects that have yet to be proven through drilling.
The estimates for undiscovered resources in areas opened for petroleum activities are updated on an annual basis. The update is based on assessments following recent year's exploration results, any potential new studies, as well as relevant information from the companies.
In areas that have not been opened for petroleum activities, the estimates are only updated if new data has been acquired in the area which has provided significant new information.
Figure 3-1 Distribution of undiscovered liquids and natural gas in the various sea areas with range of uncertainty
The pie chart in Figure 3-1 shows a percentage-wise distribution between overall undiscovered resources in both open and unopened areas in each province. About 62 per cent of the undiscovered resources are in the Barents Sea. The Barents Sea North is the area with the highest estimate for undiscovered liquids resources, while the Barents Sea South has the equivalent for natural gas resources. These are also the regions with the greatest uncertainty, which is reflected in the considerable range between the high and low estimates.
There are substantial undiscovered resources in the North Sea and Norwegian Sea as well. Due to existing infrastructure, there is a considerable potential for value creation in these areas, even in minor discoveries . In the North Sea, we expect liquids to account for the largest share, while there is an equal distribution between undiscovered liquids and natural gas in the Norwegian Sea. The range of uncertainty from P95 to P05 in the estimated probability distribution displayed in Figure 3-1 i i, illustrates that there is a 95 per cent likelihood that the volume of undiscovered resources is higher than this P95, and 5 per cent likely that the volume is greater than P05. The actual values in scm are listed in Table 3 1.
Table 3-1 Undiscovered resources by sea area with range of uncertainty.
Undiscovered resources in opened and unopened areas
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates that 22% of total resources on the NCS are undiscovered. Of these, 60% are in areas open for petroleum activity: 29% in the Barents Sea, 15% in the Norwegian Sea, and 16% in the North Sea (see Figure 3-2).
Figure 3-2 Undiscovered resources distributed between open and unopened areas.
Figure 3-3 Undiscovered resources in opened and unopened areas with range of uncertainty. LoVeSe is an abbreviation for the sea areas off the Lofoten, Vesterålen and Senja islands.
Despite the somewhat greater resource potential in the opened areas, the upside is greatest in the unopened part of the Barents Sea (Barents Sea North). This is also the area with the greatest uncertainty, as shown in Figure 3-3. The resources in LoVeSe are distributed between the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea South.
Table 3-2 Undiscovered resources by sea area, in opened and unopened areas.
Undiscovered resources in Norwegian sea areas
North Sea
The estimate for undiscovered resources in the North Sea is 575 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. This is distributed between 370 million Sm3 of liquids and 205 billion Sm3 of natural gas, which is a reduction of 35 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. from the year before. The decline was caused by high exploration activity in the North Sea in 2024, with a total of 21 completed wildcat wells.
Even in a mature area such as the North Sea, there is still significant uncertainty in the estimates for undiscovered resources, as illustrated in Figure 3-1. The figure shows a probability distribution where the low end is the P95 estimate and the high end represents the P05 estimate. These figures indicate the expected value in the distribution, which is typically somewhat higher than the P50 value.
Uncertainty in resource estimates
The uncertainty is an expression of the range of potential resource outcomes or results. It can be described in many different ways, but most frequently using a low and a high estimate.
When it comes to undiscovered resources, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate uses P95 for the low estimate. Based on the underlying assumption of the analysis, there is a 95 per cent likelihood that the result is equal to or greater than the P95 value. P05 is used for the high estimate, which means that there is a five per cent likelihood that the result will be equal to or greater than the P05 value.
The expected value is the average value. This is often defined as the arithmetic mean of all outcomes in the statistical distribution. This is used frequently and its defining property is that the expected value of different distributions is equal to the sum of the expectation for each distribution. The expected value is normally somewhat higher than the P50 value.
It cannot be ruled out that major discoveries are made in the North Sea, but most discoveries are expected to be relatively minor. The average discovery size in the North Sea over the last five years is about 3.5 million Sm3 recoverable o.e.
Norwegian Sea
The estimate for undiscovered resources in the Norwegian Sea is 760 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. This is distributed between 360 million Sm3 of liquids and 400 billion Sm3 of natural gas, which is an increase of 35 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. A significant share of this is associated with exploration activity and the update of the Upper Cretaceous play in the in the Vøring Basin.
The resource estimates for the Norwegian Sea also include the resource volumes in the unopened areas off Lofoten and Vesterålen, as well as in the area around Jan Mayen. These constitute about 32 per cent of the total estimate. See Table 3-2 for the distribution between opened and unopened areas.
The average discovery size in the Norwegian Sea has increased over the last five years and is now 4.1 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e.
Barents Sea
The estimate for undiscovered resources in the Barents Sea is 2,165 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. This is distributed between 1,085 million Sm3 of liquids and 1,080 billion Sm3 of natural gas., which is an increase of 20 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. and is linked to the mapping of prospectivity in the Barents Sea South.
Barents Sea South
The estimate for undiscovered resources in the Barents Sea South is 1,040 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. This is distributed between 430 million Sm3 of liquids and 610 billion Sm3 of natural gas.
The Barents Sea South has seen a relatively low level of exploration activity over the last five years. Only 18 wildcat wells have been completed; five of which were drilled in 2024. A total of 11 discoveries were made in these 18 wells. In comparison, 27 wildcat wells were completed during the previous five-year period. The average discovery size is about 3.8 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e. for discoveries made over the last five years.
Barents Sea North
The Barents Sea holds about 54 per cent of the resources in areas not yet opened for petroleum activities, and 97 per cent of these resources are in the Barents Sea North. This is the area with the highest likelihood of making new, major discoveries on the NCS, but it is also the area with the greatest uncertainty.
The estimate for undiscovered resources in the Barents Sea North is 1,125 million Sm3 of recoverable o.e., which is distributed between 655 million Sm3 of liquids and 470 billion Sm3 of natural gas. This is the same figure as last year, as no geological evaluation was carried out in this area in 2024.
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