Fact box – Exploration activity and results over the past decade

The annual number of wildcats has varied between 22 and 43 over the past 10 years (Figure 2.18). A total of 31 were drilled in 2021 – 22 in the North Sea, five in the Norwegian Sea and four in the Barents Sea. The distribution of wildcats between these areas shows that most exploration is in mature parts of the NCS. The exception was 2017, when half the wildcats were drilled in the Barents Sea.

Figure 2.18 Wildcats in the various NCS areas over the past decade.

parts of the NCS, a high success rate will be important for maintaining resource growth. Figure 2.19 presents the success rate since 1967. Technical and commercial rates average about 46 and 29 per cent respectively. All discoveries are included when calculating the technical success rate. The commercial rate does not include resource class 6 (RC6). A discretionary judgement is made for new discoveries in resource class 7 (RC7) – in other words, ones which have not been evaluated.

Figure 2.19 Technical and commercial success rates Technical and commercial success rates at five-year intervals.

The main target for 70 per cent of the wildcats completed in 2021 was to test Jurassic reservoirs. So far, wildcats in plays with Jurassic reservoirs have proven the largest petroleum quantities on the NCS. Similar exploration is expected to make a substantial contribution to future resource growth. Testing less well-known plays is nevertheless important in order to acquire greater understanding of their resource potential.

Wells with several targets are usually not positioned optimally for testing secondary targets. Understanding this is important when comparing success rates and creaming curves in different plays, for example.