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Oil and gas on the shelf moving forward

Oil and gas on the shelf moving forward

Vast oil and gas resources still remain

Norway still has vast oil and gas resources that can provide a basis for high production, exports and value creation for society.

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What will it take to realise the resources?

Norway still has extensive oil and gas resources on the NCS. These resources can provide a basis for high levels of production, export and value creation for society for many years to come. However, this potential future will not simply materialise on its own.

The Directorate expects overall production to decline in the later 2020s. In order to slow this decline, exploration will need to take place close to infrastructure and in more frontier areas, in addition to making more investments in fields, discoveries and infrastructure. Failure to invest will lead to rapid dismantling of the petroleum activities.

The Directorate has prepared three potential scenarios for the overall production of oil and gas leading up to 2050. All these scenarios indicate a decline in production. How fast that will unfold depends on a number of factors, such as the pace of exploration activity and technological development. Increased knowledge, better data coverage, fresh work methods and emerging technology open up new exploration opportunities and could result in more profitable discoveries in the years to come.

You can read more in the Resource Report, which the Norwegian Offshore Directorate published in August 2024.

Three scenarios for production, the shelf 2024

 

High exploration activity

2024 saw higher exploration activity than in 2023. 42 exploration wells were terminated and 16 new discoveries were made on the NCS. The preliminary overall estimate for these discoveries is 38 million standard cubic metres of recoverable oil equivalent (251.6 million bbl o.e.). This yields a resource growth which is somewhat lower than the previous year. Gas and liquids were fairly equally represented in the discoveries.

Most of the discoveries are small, but several are being considered for development tied back to existing fields.

We've seen that even small discoveries can generate substantial values. A Norwegian Offshore Directorate analysis of exploration activity over the last 20 years (2004-2023) shows that the discoveries are valued at three times the costs expended. Exploration activity has been profitable in all ocean areas.

The figure under shows exploration results in 2024:

Figure of dscoveries, the shelf 2024

This figure shows resource growth from discoveries 2018 to 2024 (note that RC 6-discoveries are not included):

Figure of more discoveries, the shelf 2024

In 2025, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate expects a total of about 40 exploration wells, where 20–25 will be in the North Sea, 10–12 in the Norwegian Sea and 4–6 in the Barents Sea.

At the end by 2024, there were 78 discoveries still awaiting a potential development decision. They comprise certain larger discoveries and several minor ones in all ocean areas on the shelf. Most discoveries are in the North Sea.

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate expects that nearly two-thirds of the undiscovered resources on the NCS are located in the Barents Sea. This is why we are concerned with sharing knowledge surrounding opportunities in the Barents Sea. Among other things, this manifested in our organisation of a seminar in October on the latest developments in this ocean area.

It is worth noting that, without increased gas export capacity, vast gas resources and values may remain locked away for quite some time. That is why developing more infrastructure in and around these waters is of utmost importance for the realisation of already proven oil and gas resources. Greater export capacity will also provide incentives for gas exploration.

Ocean area Prospect name Wellbore Production licence Operator Content Size, million Sm3 oe
Barent Sea Hassel 7324/8-4 1170 AKER BP Gas 0,5-0,7
Barent Sea Klappmyss (Countach) 7122/8-2 S 229 VÅR ENERGI Oil 0,3-0,8
Barent Sea Ferdinand Nord 7324/6-2 1170 AKER BP Gas 0,5-0,6
North Sea Othello 2/6-7 S 1086 DNO Oil 4,2-9,0
North Sea Cuvette 35/11-27 S 248 WINTERSHALL DEA Oil and gas 2,9-5,7
North Sea Ringhorne Nord 25/8-23 S 956 VÅR ENERGI Oil 2,8-6,0
North Sea Cerisa 36/7-5 S 636 VÅR ENERGI Oil and gas 2,3-5,3
North Sea Rhombi Fensfjord 35/11-30 A 090 EQUINOR Oil and gas 1,8-4,6
North Sea Rhombi Sognefjord 35/11-30 S 090 EQUINOR Gas 1,8-3,0
North Sea Brokk/Mju 15/3-13 S 25 EQUINOR Oil and gas 0,5-2,5
North Sea Ringand 31/1-4 923 EQUINOR Oil and gas 0,3-2,0
North Sea Cerisa West 36/7-5 B 636 VÅR ENERGI Oil 0,6-1,2
North Sea Angel 35/10-13 S 827 SB EQUINOR Oil and gas 0,1-0,4
North Sea Solan 33/12-N-4 AH 50 EQUINOR Oil  0,05-0,06
Norwegian Sea Haydn/Monn 6605/6-1 S 1194 OMV Gas 5,3- 11,2
Norwegian Sea Lavrans - Tiljefm 6406/2-L-2H 199 EQUINOR  Gas 0,8-1,9

 

New technology creates values

Continuous technology development is a necessary contribution towards generating the greatest possible value for society. This is why the Norwegian Offshore Directorate must be a driving force for developing new technology, including digitalisation, throughout the value chain.

In 2024, we have studied the potential in so-called tight reservoirs and how they can be realised, as well as gathering dynamic data (including testing exploration wells to collect reservoir information). In October, we organised a seminar to highlight how we can improve recovery using hydraulic fracturing. This effort will be followed up in 2025.

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate has organised an annual technology day over the last three years. This is primarily aimed at licensees on the NCS. The objective is to share experience from implementing new technology, in line with our technology strategy. This is a popular event, and the next one is scheduled for 5 June 2025.

A selection of technology initiatives on the shelf in 2024:

Ekofisk: It has proven difficult to carry out pilots on the fields, but the licensees on Ekofisk are currently conducting a major EOR (enhanced oil recovery) pilot to explore how low salinity water injection affects oil recovery.

Gullfaks Sør: New method for hydraulic fracturing applied in a subsea well.

Fram Sør: Decision process for implementing electric X-mas trees. If this moves forward, it will be the first installation on the NCS.

Edvard Grieg/Johan Sverdrup: Use of DAS/fibre in connection with seismic acquisition (PRM).

Yggdrasil: Use of horizontal appraisal wells with ultra-deep resistivity log.

Improved Recovery Award

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate's Improved Recovery Award was given to the licensees, Aker BP and Pandion Energy, on the Valhall and Hod fields in the North Sea. These fields have produced nearly four times more oil and gas than what was estimated in the development plans.

The 2024 award winners have ambitious plans to implement cutting-edge technology to improve production from tight reservoir formations. Their ambition is to produce one billion additional barrels of oil equivalent from the fields over the next 40 years.

Read more: Valhall – Aker BP

Download: Background data (Excel)