The shelf in 2007 - Petroleum production
14/01/2008 A total of 237.8 million standard cubic metres (Sm³) marketable oil equivalents (o.e.) were produced in 2007. This is 26.2 million Sm³ o.e. less than in the record year 2004.
Total production of petroleum in 2008 is expected to reach about 240 million Sm³ o.e. Production is then expected to rise weakly towards a peak of about 254 million Sm³ o.e. in 2011. Approximately 1275 million Sm³ o.e. were produced in the five-year period 2003-2007. The gas percentage of the total petroleum sales is expected to increase from 38 in 2007 to 46 in 2012.
Figure 1. Actual and forecast sales of petroleum
About 89 billion Sm³ gas was sold in 2007. This is an increase of 2.0 billion compared with 2006(+2.3 per cent). Gas sales are expected to exceed 99 billion Sm³ in 2008. Production of marketable gas is expected to continue to rise in the years to come.
Figure 2. Actual and forecast gas sales
Oil production in 2007 is expected to reach 128.5 million Sm³ (2.21 million barrels per day) compared with 136.6 million Sm3 (2.5 million bbls per day) in the previous year. 52 fields contributed to oil production in 2007, approx. 40 of which are currently off plateau. It is important for oil production on the Norwegian shelf that there is a continued commitment to drilling new development wells and other measures to improve recovery.
The 2007 oil production appears to be nearly identical to the estimates prepared by the NPD in the autumn of 2006.
The NPD prepares prognoses within an 80 per cent confidence interval. This means that there is a 10% likelihood that production will be lower than the low estimate and a 10% likelihood that production will be higher than the high estimate.
For 2008, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate estimates that oil production will be somewhat lower than in 2007, 117.9 million Sm³ (2.0 million bbls per day). The uncertainty in 2008 is estimated at +/- 13 per cent, mainly linked to the ability of the reservoirs to deliver, timing for start-up of new projects and regularity for fields in operation.
The forecast for production of condensate and NGL in 2008 is 4 million Sm³ and 10 million tonnes respectively, bringing the estimate for total liquid production to 140.8 million Sm3 o.e. (2.4 million bbls o.e. per day).
The table below shows an overview of production forecasts for the various products for the next five years.
|
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 | |
|
Olje/Oil |
117.9 |
115.3 |
114.3 |
112.9 |
110.3 |
|
NGL/NGL |
18.8 |
19.6 |
17.8 |
18.8 |
19.1 |
|
Kondensat/Condensate |
4.0 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
|
Væske/Liquid |
140.7 |
139.8 |
137.3 |
137.8 |
136.0 |
|
Væske/Liquid |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
|
Gass/Gas |
99.4 |
108.8 |
110.4 |
115.9 |
115.3 |
Figure 3. Uncertainty in future oil production
Somewhat reduced oil production is expected for the period 2008-2012, as compared with the previous five-year period, i.e. a total estimated production of 571 million Sm³ oil. This is 171 million Sm³ less than in the previous five-year period. More than 97 per cent of the oil production during this period is expected to come from producing fields or from fields that have been approved for development. This includes measures to improve recovery from these same fields.
Figure 4. Oil production from 1995 to 2012 distributed by maturity.
Updated: 14/12/2009